Élaborez un compte rendu de cet article en anglais en 200 mots (±10%).
GLOBALISATION: TIME TO LOOK AT HISTORIC MISTAKES TO PLOT THE FUTURE
Trade deals were hammered out in secret by multinationals at the expense of workers and citizens. Benefits must be shared if the global economy is to work.
Discontent with globalisation has fuelled a wave of populism in the US and other advanced economies.
There are three responses to globalised discontent with globalisation. The first-call it the Las Vegas strategy-is to double down on the bet on globalisation as it has been managed for the past quarter-century. This bet, like all bets on proven policy failures (such as trickle-down economics), is based on the hope that somehow it will succeed in the future. The second response is Trumpism: cut oneself off from globalisation, in the hope that doing so will somehow bring back a bygone world. But protectionism won't work. Globally, manufacturing jobs are on the decline, simply because producti- vity growth has outpaced growth in demand.
Even if manufacturing were to come back, the jobs will not. Advanced manufacturing technology, including robots, means that the few jobs created will require higher skills and will be placed at different locations than the jobs that were lost. Like doubling down, this approach is doomed to fail, further increasing the discontent felt by those left behind.
Trump will fail even in his proclaimed goal of reducing the trade deficit, which is determined by the disparity between domestic savings and investment. Now that the Republicans have got their way and enacted a tax cut for billionaires, national savings will fall and the trade deficit will rise, owing to an increase in the value of the dollar. (Fiscal deficits and trade deficits normally move so closely together they are called "twin" deficits.) Trump may not like it, but as he is slowly finding out, there are some things that even a person in the most powerful position in the world cannot control. There is a third approach: social protection without protectionism, the kind of approach that the small nordic countries took. They knew that as small countries they had to remain open. But they also knew that remaining open would expose workers to risk. Thus, they had to have a social contract that helped workers move from old jobs to new and provide some help in the interim.
The nordic countries are deeply democratic societies, so they knew that unless most workers regarded globalisation as benefiting them, it wouldn't be sustained. And the wealthy in these countries recognised that if globalisation worked as it should, there would be enough benefits to go around.
American capitalism in recent years has been marked by unbridled greed-the 2008 financial crisis provides ample confir- mation of that. But, as some countries have shown, a market economy can take forms that temper the excesses of both capitalism and globalisation, and deliver more sustainable growth and higher standards of living for most citizens. We can learn from such successes what to do, just as we can learn from past mistakes what not to do. As has become evident, if we do not manage globalisation so that it benefits all, the backlash-from the New Discontents in the north and the Old Discontents in the south-is at risk of intensifying.
GLOBALISATION: TIME TO LOOK AT HISTORIC MISTAKES TO PLOT THE FUTURE
Trade deals were hammered out in secret by multinationals at the expense of workers and citizens. Benefits must be shared if the global economy is to work.
Discontent with globalisation has fuelled a wave of populism in the US and other advanced economies.
There are three responses to globalised discontent with globalisation. The first-call it the Las Vegas strategy-is to double down on the bet on globalisation as it has been managed for the past quarter-century. This bet, like all bets on proven policy failures (such as trickle-down economics), is based on the hope that somehow it will succeed in the future. The second response is Trumpism: cut oneself off from globalisation, in the hope that doing so will somehow bring back a bygone world. But protectionism won't work. Globally, manufacturing jobs are on the decline, simply because producti- vity growth has outpaced growth in demand.
Even if manufacturing were to come back, the jobs will not. Advanced manufacturing technology, including robots, means that the few jobs created will require higher skills and will be placed at different locations than the jobs that were lost. Like doubling down, this approach is doomed to fail, further increasing the discontent felt by those left behind.
Trump will fail even in his proclaimed goal of reducing the trade deficit, which is determined by the disparity between domestic savings and investment. Now that the Republicans have got their way and enacted a tax cut for billionaires, national savings will fall and the trade deficit will rise, owing to an increase in the value of the dollar. (Fiscal deficits and trade deficits normally move so closely together they are called "twin" deficits.) Trump may not like it, but as he is slowly finding out, there are some things that even a person in the most powerful position in the world cannot control. There is a third approach: social protection without protectionism, the kind of approach that the small nordic countries took. They knew that as small countries they had to remain open. But they also knew that remaining open would expose workers to risk. Thus, they had to have a social contract that helped workers move from old jobs to new and provide some help in the interim.
The nordic countries are deeply democratic societies, so they knew that unless most workers regarded globalisation as benefiting them, it wouldn't be sustained. And the wealthy in these countries recognised that if globalisation worked as it should, there would be enough benefits to go around.
American capitalism in recent years has been marked by unbridled greed-the 2008 financial crisis provides ample confir- mation of that. But, as some countries have shown, a market economy can take forms that temper the excesses of both capitalism and globalisation, and deliver more sustainable growth and higher standards of living for most citizens. We can learn from such successes what to do, just as we can learn from past mistakes what not to do. As has become evident, if we do not manage globalisation so that it benefits all, the backlash-from the New Discontents in the north and the Old Discontents in the south-is at risk of intensifying.
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Title: Globalisation: Reflecting on Historical Mistakes to Shape the Future
The article highlights the discontent and rise of populism in the US and other advanced economies as a result of globalisation. It presents three responses to address this discontent. The first response, termed the "Las Vegas strategy," suggests doubling down on the current approach to globalisation, hoping that it will eventually succeed. However, this approach is seen as flawed, similar to failed policies like trickle-down economics.
The second response, referred to as Trumpism, advocates for cutting off from globalisation in an attempt to revive a bygone era. However, the article argues that protectionism will not be effective, as global manufacturing jobs are declining due to productivity growth surpassing demand. Even if manufacturing returns, the jobs lost are unlikely to reemerge due to advanced technology and automation.
The article predicts that Trump's goal of reducing the trade deficit will fail, as the disparity between domestic savings and investment determines it. With the enactment of tax cuts for billionaires, national savings are expected to decrease, leading to an increase in the trade deficit. The article suggests that some aspects of the economy are beyond the control of even the most powerful leaders.
The third approach proposed is social protection without protectionism, inspired by the Nordic countries. These countries remained open to globalisation but implemented a social contract to assist workers in transitioning from old jobs to new ones, providing support during the interim period. The article emphasizes the importance of a democratic society where most workers perceive globalisation as beneficial to sustain its implementation.
The article concludes by acknowledging the unbridled greed seen in American capitalism in recent years and suggests that market economies can adopt measures to temper the excesses of capitalism and globalisation. By learning from both successes and past mistakes, it is crucial to manage globalisation in a way that benefits everyone, as failure to do so may intensify the backlash from discontented populations in both the north and south.
Word count: 214 words
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